The crypto market is in chaos right now, and your question about whether BTC will drop more is on everyone’s mind. Tony Tèo will analyze the situation using the latest data from web sources and market sentiment, offering a balanced view. However, no one can predict the market with 100% accuracy, so take this as a guide and proceed with caution.
Current State of BTC
Based on recent updates:
- Current Price: A post from earlier today reported BTC at $77,000, down 3.5% in the last 24 hours and 5.1% over the past week (per CoinGecko data). Another update confirmed a price around $78,000, with potential to retest the weekly support zone of $68,000–$72,000.
- Market Sentiment: According to Changelly, the Fear & Greed Index is at 20 (Extreme Fear), indicating a highly negative market mood. This often triggers panic selling.
- Technical Analysis:
- Changelly notes a bearish trend on the 4-hour and daily charts. The 50-day Moving Average (MA) is declining and sits above the current price, acting as potential resistance if BTC tries to recover. The 200-day MA has also dipped since 7/3/2025, suggesting a weakening long-term trend.
- A recent analysis indicated that BTC has dropped 30% from its peak, aligning with earlier predictions—hinting this could be a zone for action (buy or wait).
- Another source suggests the current correction might test a major support at $68,000–$72,000, and if held, BTC could bounce back.
Factors Influencing BTC Price
- Sell-Off Pressure:
- A report highlighted a significant sell-off, with BTC and many altcoins hitting 1-year lows. This could stem from panic among retail investors or large “whales” unloading positions.
- Another source noted that Bitcoin faced heavy selling pressure late February 2025, with “Bitcoin tourists” (new investors) cashing out, driving prices lower.
- Macroeconomic Factors:
- The U.S. CPI data is due tomorrow, 12/3/2025. One analysis suggests that if CPI comes in below expectations (forecasted at 2.6%), the Federal Reserve might cut interest rates more aggressively, boosting liquidity and supporting risk assets like BTC. However, a higher-than-expected CPI could trigger further selling, as investors might fear tighter monetary policy.
- Another report highlighted that if the Fed delays rate cuts, high U.S. Treasury yields will continue to make BTC less attractive compared to safe-haven assets.
- Market Psychology and Behavior:
- A prediction from yesterday suggested BTC might recover to the low $90,000s in the next few days, but then adjust deeper to the low $70,000s or high $60,000s to hunt for liquidity before a strong rebound.
- The current “Extreme Fear” sentiment could fuel more selling if positive news or fresh capital doesn’t emerge soon.
Will BTC Drop Further?
Based on the above, here’s Tony Tèo’s take:
- Likelihood of Further Drop:
- BTC is likely to decline further in the short term, especially if the $68,000–$72,000 support zone breaks. Some analysts suggest BTC needs to dip to the low $70,000s or high $60,000s to clear liquidity before recovering.
- One forecast predicts a potential 3.15% drop by tomorrow (12/3), bringing BTC to around $74,500. If panic persists or tomorrow’s CPI surprises negatively, prices could slide further, possibly to $60,000, as some bearish predictions suggest.
- Another source points to a critical Fibonacci level at $85,000 (now broken below), and failure to hold lower supports could lead to deeper declines.
- Likelihood of Recovery:
- On the flip side, if the $68,000–$72,000 support holds, BTC might see a short-term bounce, as predicted (to the low $90,000s). An earlier analysis noted that if BTC held its base price (around $85,000 then) with buying pressure, there’s a 70% chance of an uptrend (barring bad news).
- Long-term, sources remain bullish for 2025, with average price predictions ranging from $160,000 to $200,000 by year-end, driven by institutional adoption and the 2024 halving effect.
Conclusion and Suggestions
- Short-Term (Next Few Days): BTC is likely to drop further, particularly if the $68,000–$72,000 support fails. Wait for market reaction post-CPI data on 12/3. If prices hit $60,000–$65,000, it could be a dip-buying opportunity, but tread carefully given the negative sentiment.
- Medium to Long-Term: Despite the current crash, experts are optimistic about BTC in 2025. Factors like Bitcoin ETFs, institutional adoption, and the halving’s lingering impact could push prices higher by year-end. Be prepared for significant volatility.
Actionable Tips:
- If you’re holding: Avoid panic selling—history shows BTC often rebounds strongly after major dips (e.g., 2022). Wait for clearer signals, especially after tomorrow’s CPI.
- If you’re looking to buy: Wait for a retest of the $68,000–$72,000 support. If it holds, consider dollar-cost averaging to mitigate risk. If it breaks, wait for lower levels ($60,000–$65,000).
- Monitor news and technical indicators (e.g., RSI, MA) on TradingView or CoinGecko for better insights.